Mon, Oct 17, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 4, New York Rangers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 08 | 313 | 431 |
| NYR | 18 | 212 | 49 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06NYRMarc StaalAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:02SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 4:15NYRRick NashAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:21NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Antti Raanta · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 9:13SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:16NYRKevin HayesAssists: Jesper Fast, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 12:37NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 13:57SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 15:31SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 18:24NYRMats ZuccarelloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–6
- P3 19:53NYRMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:16NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:16SJSTomas Hertl: Interference2 min
- P2 8:30SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:25NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:25SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:37SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Donskoi – Hertl4:14
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture3:56
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Couture – Boedker – Donskoi5:23
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Karlsson5:00
xG 0.11–0.10 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic2:31
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns11:51
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 2–2
- Vlasic – Braun13:53
xG 0.39–0.50 (43%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Kreider – Zibanejad10:14
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–3
- Grabner – Pirri – Jooris5:52
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hayes – Fast – Miller8:52
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Vesey6:49
xG 0.39–0.51 (44%)attempts 4–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Holden14:16
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Staal – Clendening9:32
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Staal – McDonagh2:32
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).