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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 17, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York

San Jose Sharks 4, New York Rangers 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.

NYR winsSJS wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 3:20Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Jones
  3. P1 3:24Shot by Kreider, saved by Jones
  4. P1 3:52Shot by Couture, saved by Raanta
  5. P1 4:56Shot by McDonagh, saved by Jones
  6. P1 5:04Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Jones
  7. P1 5:43Shot by Vlasic, saved by Raanta
  8. P1 9:50Shot by Burns, saved by Raanta
  9. P1 11:20Shot by Kreider, saved by Jones
  10. P1 12:06Goal by Staal (Stepan, Zuccarello)+17 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Staal, Stepan, Zuccarello, Clendening, Vesey · SJS Burns, Schlemko, Boedker, Wingels, Donskoi

  11. P1 12:30Shot by Hertl, saved by Raanta
  12. P1 13:16Shot by Marleau, saved by Raanta
  13. P1 15:18Shot by Kreider, saved by Jones
  14. P1 15:30Shot by Nieto, saved by Raanta
  15. P1 16:42Shot by Burns, saved by Raanta
  16. P1 17:08Shot by McDonagh, saved by Jones
  17. P1 17:16Zibanejad: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Nash, Staal, McDonagh, Kreider, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Pavelski, Vlasic, Braun, Hertl

  18. P1 17:52Shot by Marleau, saved by Raanta4v5
  19. P1 18:29Fast: Hooking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: NYR Staal, Grabner, Fast, Skjei · SJS Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Pavelski, Couture

  20. P1 18:27Shot by Burns, saved by Raanta4v5
  21. P1 19:02Goal by Couture (Pavelski, Thornton)3v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Staal, McDonagh, Hayes · SJS Thornton, Marleau, Burns, Pavelski, Couture

  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:31Shot by Burns, saved by Raanta
  25. P2 1:19Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Jones
  26. P2 1:31Shot by Nieto, saved by Raanta
  27. P2 2:42Shot by Stepan, saved by Jones
  28. P2 3:35Shot by Jooris, saved by Jones
  29. P2 4:15Goal by Nash (McDonagh, Kreider)+22 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Nash, McDonagh, Kreider, Clendening, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Martin, Burns, Pavelski, Hertl

  30. P2 4:57Shot by Miller, saved by Jones
  31. P2 5:13Shot by Hertl, saved by Raanta
  32. P2 5:16Hertl: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Nash, McDonagh, Holden, Kreider, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Pavelski, Vlasic, Braun, Hertl

  33. P2 7:07Shot by Vesey, saved by Jones5v4
  34. P2 7:41Shot by Jooris, saved by Jones
  35. P2 8:03Shot by Miller, saved by Jones
  36. P2 8:16Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Jones
  37. P2 8:30Dillon: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Nash, McDonagh, Holden, Kreider, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Schlemko, Wingels, Dillon, Nieto

  38. P2 9:38Shot by Hayes, saved by Jones5v4
  39. P2 9:55Shot by McDonagh, saved by Jones5v4
  40. P2 10:21Goal by Kreider (McDonagh, Raanta)5v4+11 pts WP

    On ice: NYR McDonagh, Kreider, Pirri, Hayes, Zibanejad · SJS Pavelski, Vlasic, Braun, Hertl

  41. P2 10:40Shot by Schlemko, saved by Raanta
  42. P2 10:53Miller: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: NYR McDonagh, Hayes, Fast, Miller, Skjei · SJS Marleau, Ward, Schlemko, Dillon, Tierney

  43. P2 12:10Shot by Donskoi, saved by Raanta4v5
  44. P2 12:46Shot by Burns, saved by Raanta4v5
  45. P2 16:07Shot by Pavelski, saved by Raanta
  46. P2 17:25McIlrath: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Staal, Stepan, McIlrath, Fast, Vesey · SJS Marleau, Schlemko, Dillon, Donskoi, Hertl

  47. P2 17:25McIlrath: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: NYR Staal, Stepan, McIlrath, Fast, Vesey · SJS Marleau, Schlemko, Dillon, Donskoi, Hertl

  48. P2 17:25Hertl: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: NYR Staal, Stepan, McIlrath, Fast, Vesey · SJS Marleau, Schlemko, Dillon, Donskoi, Hertl

  49. P2 18:52Shot by Schlemko, saved by Raanta4v5
  50. P2 0:00Period end
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 1:29Shot by Hayes, saved by Jones
  53. P3 2:03Shot by Schlemko, saved by Raanta
  54. P3 2:04Shot by Ward, saved by Raanta
  55. P3 3:43Shot by Skjei, saved by Jones
  56. P3 4:37Thornton: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: NYR Staal, McDonagh, Stepan, Hayes, Fast, Miller · SJS Thornton, Martin, Burns, Nieto, Karlsson

  57. P3 4:37Shot by Hayes, saved by Jones6v4
  58. P3 5:20Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Jones5v4
  59. P3 6:49Shot by Martin, saved by Raanta
  60. P3 8:05Shot by Marleau, saved by Raanta
  61. P3 8:55Shot by Pavelski, saved by Raanta
  62. P3 9:13Goal by Burns (Pavelski, Martin)+9 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Nash, Staal, Kreider, Zibanejad, Skjei · SJS Martin, Burns, Pavelski, Wingels, Nieto

  63. P3 12:16Goal by Hayes (Fast, Miller)+8 pts WP

    On ice: NYR McDonagh, Holden, Hayes, Fast, Miller · SJS Thornton, Martin, Burns, Wingels, Nieto

  64. P3 12:37Goal by Vesey (Stepan, Zuccarello)+1 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Staal, Stepan, Zuccarello, Clendening, Vesey · SJS Ward, Vlasic, Braun, Boedker, Tierney

  65. P3 12:56Shot by Donskoi, saved by Raanta
  66. P3 13:57Goal by Burns (Pavelski, Thornton)+1 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Nash, Staal, McDonagh, Kreider, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Martin, Burns, Pavelski, Couture

  67. P3 14:28Shot by Nieto, saved by Raanta
  68. P3 15:20Shot by Couture, saved by Raanta
  69. P3 15:31Goal by Pavelski (Burns, Hertl)+5 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Nash, McDonagh, Holden, Kreider, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Burns, Pavelski, Vlasic, Hertl

  70. P3 15:51Shot by Marleau, saved by Raanta
  71. P3 17:15Shot by Miller, saved by Jones
  72. P3 18:24Goal by Zuccarello, unassisted5v6+3 pts WP

    On ice: NYR McDonagh, Holden, Kreider, Zuccarello, Zibanejad · SJS Thornton, Burns, Pavelski, Vlasic, Couture, Hertl

  73. P3 19:37Shot by Marleau, saved by Raanta5v6
  74. P3 19:53Goal by Grabner, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Staal, Grabner, Holden, Stepan, Zuccarello · SJS Thornton, Marleau, Ward, Burns, Pavelski, Couture

  75. P3 0:00Period end
  76. P3 0:00Final