Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 18 | 213 | 02 | 1 | 331 |
| TBL | 010 | 212 | 16 | 00 | 2 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:38FLAColton SceviourSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:18TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:21TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 5:26FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 15:52FLAMike MathesonAssists: Greg McKegg, Jason Demers · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. TBL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 7. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 8. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 9. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 10. FLA Reilly Smith stopped
- 11. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 12. FLA Aaron Ekblad stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:11TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:45FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:37TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P3 5:45FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P3 5:45FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:45TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39TBLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:11FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:16
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 1–2
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov13:29
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Malgin7:32
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg8:23
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:45
xG 0.80–0.68 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Demers – Matheson14:38
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:04
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Namestnikov – Point11:08
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Drouin12:46
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette6:50
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov12:15
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 5–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:04
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Nesterov14:01
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Garrison – Sustr14:54
xG 0.33–0.85 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).