Wed, Oct 19, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 17 | 14 | 218 |
| NYR | 114 | 013 | 06 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:15DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:59DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:49NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:29NYRAdam Clendening: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55DETDylan Larkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:01DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:54DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 5:15DETAlexey Marchenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:02NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Tatar – Larkin6:55
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Helm – Nyquist5:39
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar3:43
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Sheahan5:17
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser14:59
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Green3:24
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko9:22
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Zuccarello – Vesey12:31
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad2:32
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Grabner – Pirri – Jooris5:03
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Kreider – Zibanejad9:47
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei11:36
xG 0.78–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden12:57
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Klein – Staal14:26
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).