Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 014 | 28 | 213 | 435 |
| OTT | 04 | 116 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:36TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anton Stralman · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 6:45TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 15:27OTTChris NeilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 8:02TBLAlex KillornAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:03TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:25OTTCody Ceci: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:13OTTMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:19TBLJT Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:07TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:13OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P3 10:27TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 19:51OTTChris Wideman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:58
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Point12:59
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette7:18
xG 0.02–0.02 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Drouin12:49
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman15:51
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr14:39
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov13:22
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Pyatt – Pageau7:37
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Smith10:02
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Varone – Dzingel3:32
xG 0.01–0.16 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone10:01
xG 0.17–0.65 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:12
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman8:09
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:16
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).