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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

OTT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Filppula–Killorn–PointJohnson–Palat–DrouinStamkos–Kucherov–NamestnikovBoyle–Brown–PaquetteStralman–HedmanGarrison–SustrCoburn–NesterovNesterov–SustrCoburn–GarrisonHedman–Nesterov
Ryan–Brassard–Smith4:260.09–0.202:100.00–0.011:000.00–0.001:500.00–0.013:110.11–0.153:170.02–0.062:290.00–0.010:300.00–0.00
Turris–Hoffman–Stone1:460.11–0.081:490.00–0.014:530.05–0.561:140.00–0.004:040.05–0.173:320.05–0.041:400.00–0.06
Kelly–Pyatt–Pageau0:380.00–0.064:310.67–0.132:080.01–0.011:420.23–0.061:430.05–0.003:210.38–0.050:370.01–0.00
Neil–Varone–Dzingel1:570.00–0.131:120.01–0.012:180.01–0.161:010.00–0.00
Pyatt–Dzingel–Pageau0:340.00–0.000:460.00–0.020:430.00–0.00
Pyatt–Turris–Stone0:410.00–0.03
Ryan–Brassard–Dzingel0:430.01–0.001:070.01–0.02
Pyatt–Varone–Pageau0:390.00–0.000:390.00–0.00
Phaneuf–Ceci3:310.00–0.075:050.22–0.105:290.07–0.571:020.00–0.005:340.21–0.195:170.05–0.074:280.02–0.070:510.06–0.000:340.06–0.00
Methot–Karlsson3:510.27–0.165:050.50–0.053:220.02–0.031:270.00–0.004:210.15–0.146:200.03–0.083:030.38–0.040:440.24–0.000:320.00–0.00
Borowiecki–Wideman2:560.10–0.151:140.00–0.143:230.02–0.023:270.06–0.140:560.05–0.002:480.01–0.17
Borowiecki–Ceci0:480.00–0.060:500.00–0.000:350.00–0.030:340.00–0.031:100.00–0.00
Karlsson–Wideman1:200.00–0.000:390.00–0.200:580.00–0.00
Phaneuf–Karlsson0:300.00–0.000:440.00–0.00
Methot–Ceci0:370.01–0.000:370.01–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndRyan FSmith FBrassard FKelly FPageau FHoffman FTurris FStone FPyatt FDzingel FNeil FVarone FWideman DBorowiecki DMethot DKarlsson DPhaneuf DCeci DAnderson GBoyle FPaquette FBrown FDrouin FJohnson FPalat FKucherov FNamestnikov FStamkos FKillorn FPoint FFilppula FStralman DHedman DGarrison DSustr DCoburn DNesterov DVasilevskiy G
OTTTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Erik KarlssonOTT3025:330:511:4974
Dion PhaneufOTT3224:050:451:2564
Cody CeciOTT3122:560:441:2545
Victor HedmanTBL2922:510:471:4456
Anton StralmanTBL2721:250:481:2854
Zack SmithOTT2619:490:461:1356
Marc MethotOTT2919:200:401:1046
Tyler JohnsonTBL2319:030:501:2457
Andrej SustrTBL2518:500:451:50110
Jason GarrisonTBL2618:040:421:1619
Steven StamkosTBL2217:520:491:4533
Ondrej PalatTBL2117:440:511:3265
Valtteri FilppulaTBL2017:420:531:4225
Braydon CoburnTBL2217:400:481:1321
Derick BrassardOTT2117:360:501:4132
Nikita NesterovTBL2317:270:461:1311
Mark StoneOTT2017:230:521:3752
Kyle TurrisOTT2217:130:471:3063
Mike HoffmanOTT2016:540:511:2552
Jean-Gabriel PageauOTT2316:400:431:1123
Jonathan DrouinTBL1916:120:511:4054
Bobby RyanOTT2016:060:481:4132
Tom PyattOTT2216:010:441:1525
Vladislav NamestnikovTBL2115:570:461:4532
Nikita KucherovTBL2015:200:461:2123
Alex KillornTBL1714:400:521:4232
Brayden PointTBL1714:350:511:4232
Chris KellyOTT1914:220:451:3222
Chris WidemanOTT2413:560:351:2632
Ryan DzingelOTT1611:300:431:2011
Mark BorowieckiOTT2010:270:311:0712
Brian BoyleTBL169:570:371:0414
JT BrownTBL179:330:340:5813
Cedric PaquetteTBL149:080:391:0411
Chris NeilOTT148:290:361:2002
Phil VaroneOTT87:480:592:0021