Tue, Oct 25, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 311 | 05 | 01 | 0 | 325 |
| PHI | 011 | 08 | 319 | 03 | 2 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:06BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:56BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 15:43BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 4:30PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 17:04PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:09PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
- 2. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:24PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:50PHIClaude Giroux: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:18PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40PHITravis Konecny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:55BUFHudson Fasching: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40BUFDmitry Kulikov: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 17:33BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – Okposo – O'Reilly12:14
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Fasching6:53
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson12:21
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Ennis – Girgensons – Reinhart9:26
xG 0.49–0.84 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe10:49
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen17:49
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Kulikov17:55
xG 0.30–1.09 (21%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – VandeVelde – Lyubimov5:03
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier5:29
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read8:29
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Schenn – Cousins – Bellemare9:54
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gudas12:16
xG 0.98–0.22 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:49
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere3:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).