Tue, Oct 25, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 210 | 016 | 231 |
| DET | 310 | 19 | 06 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53DETThomas VanekAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:51DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:55DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexey Marchenko · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 6:43CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 13:12CARVictor RaskAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 17:04DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Luke Glendening, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:26DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P1 17:38CARCam Ward: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:05DETAlexey Marchenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:08DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 14:04CARMartin Frk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:22CARViktor Stalberg: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:22DETSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Teravainen – Lindholm10:57
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- McClement – Nestrasil – Frk5:09
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Stalberg – Rask10:58
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Aho9:05
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Pesce12:21
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Faulk – Slavin16:01
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Nakladal11:39
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Helm – Athanasiou7:39
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Sheahan9:35
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening7:17
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Larkin8:17
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser14:52
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Sproul12:04
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Ericsson – Marchenko14:18
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).