Fri, Oct 28, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 015 | 07 | 233 |
| CGY | 14 | 28 | 27 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jyrki Jokipakka · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:31OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:51OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 1:25CGYSam BennettAssists: Alex Chiasson, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 10:26CGYDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 9:33CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 12:19CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:34CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23OTTZack Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:19CGYKris Versteeg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:22OTTChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Brassard – Dzingel10:11
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Turris – Hoffman4:31
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone4:03
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Neil – Kelly – Puempel7:36
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman9:54
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci13:43
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Ceci3:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bouma3:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Ferland4:34
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Ferland4:25
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk6:28
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano15:32
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie18:04
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton13:30
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).