Sun, Oct 30, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 011 | 111 | 132 |
| NYR | 016 | 415 | 26 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45NYRRick NashAssists: Nick Holden · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:42NYRMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 7:04NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Rick Nash · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 18:10NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–4
- P3 9:02NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 14:47NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–6
- P3 16:36TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:03TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59NYRJimmy Vesey: Holding2 min
- P1 17:09TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P1 18:35NYRMats Zuccarello: Clipping2 min
- P2 9:15TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:15TBLJonathan Drouin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:55TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:45NYRNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P3 15:21NYRBrandon Pirri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Callahan – Paquette8:19
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Drouin8:44
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Point10:38
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–3
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:35
xG 0.90–1.40 (39%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov8:00
xG 0.90–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison7:02
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Garrison – Hedman4:34
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller9:47
xG 1.34–0.70 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 4–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:57
xG 0.98–0.54 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey8:54
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Fast8:25
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden16:30
xG 1.38–0.52 (72%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:41
xG 1.39–1.03 (57%)attempts 18–20goals 2–0
- Klein – Skjei13:46
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).