Tue, Nov 1, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 119 | 014 | 113 | 00 | 246 |
| TOR | 18 | 114 | 08 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:29EDMAnton LanderAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:14TORBen SmithAssists: Nikita Soshnikov, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 8:38EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:12TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:24TORMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:11TORNikita Soshnikov: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 16:36EDMAnton Lander: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27TORNazem Kadri: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi10:22
xG 0.89–0.23 (79%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins10:47
xG 1.06–0.69 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Letestu – Lander – Pitlick5:30
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
- Lucic – Eberle – McDavid11:20
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:19
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Benning – Nurse12:54
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Smith – Soshnikov6:11
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown11:16
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews15:22
xG 1.06–1.10 (49%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:39
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 4–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev20:27
xG 1.33–1.14 (54%)attempts 25–24goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner11:28
xG 1.07–1.09 (50%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Marincin – Carrick16:07
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).