Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 08 | 018 | 138 |
| TBL | 08 | 221 | 26 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:39NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:25TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Victor Hedman, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:27TBLVictor HedmanGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:01TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:14TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:15TBLOndrej Palat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:42TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:42NJDVernon Fiddler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:42TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:28NJDPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:39NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:16NJDMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:57NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:52TBLTyler Johnson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Zajac – Hall11:03
xG 1.00–0.21 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Zacha2:25
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Palmieri – Bennett3:44
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bennett – Zacha2:00
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Moore12:13
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson12:19
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Auvitu9:46
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:28
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point7:50
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Point2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov3:28
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman8:54
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Hedman – Sustr3:44
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek7:46
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).