Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 012 | 19 | 134 |
| NSH | 012 | 210 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46NSHJames NealAssists: Roman Josi, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:52NSHP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: James Neal, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 2:23NSHRyan EllisAssists: Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 5:30OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:13OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:13NSHCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:47OTTMatt Puempel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:20NSHRyan Ellis: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59NSHMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:59OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:59NSHMike Ribeiro: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:11OTTDion Phaneuf: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:17OTTMark Stone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Kelly – Puempel3:41
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Turris – Hoffman4:10
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Dzingel – Pageau2:30
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Pageau3:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Claesson4:12
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci10:37
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Methot – Ceci5:17
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Wilson – Smith10:00
xG 0.77–0.39 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson12:05
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg12:55
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Bass – Watson – Sissons3:35
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:56
xG 1.37–0.67 (67%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis16:58
xG 0.90–0.59 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Irwin12:13
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).