Wed, Nov 16, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 17 | 06 | 00 | 121 |
| CGY | 05 | 08 | 110 | 11 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:42ARITobias RiederAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P3 6:40CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 0:49CGYMichael FrolikGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:27ARILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:16ARIAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:38CGYDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P2 15:04CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:42CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:59ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Rieder – Martinook2:57
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – McGinn8:14
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse6:52
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Rieder – Martinook – Duclair8:04
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton9:47
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Stone2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:01
xG 0.27–0.88 (23%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:16
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Monahan – Bennett11:45
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Vey7:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway6:41
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:26
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak12:22
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie15:12
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).