Thu, Nov 17, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 216 | 111 | 438 |
| BUF | 015 | 110 | 08 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15TBLNikita NesterovAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:39TBLAlex KillornPPGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 12:50BUFCody FransonPPAssists: Evander Kane, Taylor Fedun · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 18:00TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:18TBLSlater Koekkoek: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:44TBLAndrej Sustr: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05BUFDerek Grant: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:05BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:00BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:00TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:00TBLBrayden Point: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:55TBLAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46TBLJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59BUFCody Franson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Kane
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Killorn – Johnson – Point7:04
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Drouin10:32
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov12:30
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette4:09
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Nesterov12:50
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek11:31
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kane – Reinhart9:05
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson8:59
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Girgensons – Baptiste2:38
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Rodrigues6:54
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe12:59
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Falk – Fedun8:49
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:12
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).