Thu, Nov 17, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 217 | 117 | 26 | 540 |
| OTT | 17 | 014 | 010 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NSHColton SissonsAssists: Austin Watson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 8:36OTTDerick BrassardPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:34NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:10NSHPontus AbergAssists: Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 10:22NSHJames NealAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 14:36NSHMike RibeiroAssists: P.K. Subban, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:42NSHMike Fisher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:02OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:02NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:10OTTMatt Puempel: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:37OTTMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:22OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:22NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:24NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:40NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:07NSHPontus Aberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:35OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Watson – Sissons6:20
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson10:35
xG 1.19–0.64 (65%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg7:24
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Aberg7:47
xG 0.09–0.50 (15%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm14:13
xG 1.07–0.52 (67%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis12:37
xG 1.14–0.60 (65%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
- Weber – Irwin11:57
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kelly – Pyatt – Smith2:52
xG 0.01–0.04 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel2:48
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – McCormick2:06
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Neil – McCormick – Puempel3:22
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman8:28
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Methot – Borowiecki2:18
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:36
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).