Sat, Nov 26, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 014 | 215 | 235 |
| TOR | 115 | 111 | 211 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35TORMatt MartinAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:28TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Nikita Soshnikov, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P3 0:22TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–3
- P3 9:30WSHNicklas BackstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 11:50TORNazem KadriAssists: Leo Komarov, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 16:44WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:21WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:11WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:58WSHJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:49WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:33TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 9:09TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:52TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:30TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:30WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:30TORMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Backstrom – Johansson6:26
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson3:32
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 2–1
- Winnik – Eller – Connolly8:21
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Sanford3:09
xG 0.11–0.82 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Schmidt10:27
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt2:26
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner6:35
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Soshnikov8:48
xG 1.30–0.12 (92%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:04
xG 1.13–0.43 (73%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:00
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Smith – Holland5:48
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev13:07
xG 1.87–0.27 (87%)attempts 26–10goals 1–1
- Polak – Hunwick10:25
xG 1.04–0.34 (75%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick12:36
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).