Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 012 | 08 | 228 |
| NYR | 07 | 15 | 29 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22CARViktor StalbergAssists: Matt Tennyson, Joakim Nordstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:55CARViktor StalbergAssists: Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 9:13NYRNick HoldenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:24NYRRick NashUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:48NYRJimmy VeseyPPGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:06NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:25NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:15CARJay McClement: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:32NYROscar Lindberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:32CARNoah Hanifin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:13CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:13CARRon Hainsey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Lindholm11:43
xG 0.47–0.31 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Nestrasil – Di Giuseppe – Ryan7:28
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom7:55
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Aho10:48
xG 0.21–0.54 (29%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tennyson – Hanifin11:03
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk12:43
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Slavin – Pesce15:45
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hayes – Vesey9:56
xG 0.63–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Puempel5:37
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello8:02
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Grabner – Fast – Miller6:14
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:10
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Klein – Skjei12:15
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Staal – Holden16:43
xG 0.42–0.80 (35%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).