Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 5, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 314 | 14 | 110 | 528 |
| OTT | 17 | 217 | 111 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:31BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:47OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P1 14:18BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Josh Gorges, Cody Franson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 8:20OTTMark StonePPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–2
- P2 17:08BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 17:51OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 16:43BUFRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–3
- P3 18:29OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:09OTTDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:21OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:15BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:15OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:15OTTChris Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:55BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 6:29BUFWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:18OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03BUFJack Eichel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:01OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:14BUFJohan Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Carrier8:49
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Moulson – Grant – Girgensons3:04
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel10:52
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson8:20
xG 0.17–0.68 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Ristolainen2:05
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Franson10:57
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen13:52
xG 0.48–0.51 (49%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone11:48
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau7:08
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Turris – Dzingel – Lazar2:27
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Kelly – Pyatt – Smith3:16
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson5:55
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Methot – Ceci2:47
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci6:42
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).