Tue, Nov 29, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 09 | 017 | 135 |
| DET | 17 | 110 | 13 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16DALEsa LindellAssists: Tyler Seguin, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:21DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:56DETAnthony ManthaPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:57DETSteve OttENAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:47DETRyan Sproul: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:15DALStephen Johns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:26DALCurtis McKenzie: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:27DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:09DALJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:26DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:40DETSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:37DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:37DETXavier Ouellet: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:13DALPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:13DETPetr Mrazek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Sharp – Eaves8:13
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa7:47
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin12:06
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – McKenzie – Shore5:42
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Honka13:19
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Lindell12:35
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Johns – Oleksiak13:32
xG 0.27–0.24 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Sheahan – Jurco7:01
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha8:29
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Glendening7:16
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Vanek – Nyquist – Larkin6:01
xG 0.10–0.76 (12%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ericsson – Ouellet4:28
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Sproul4:13
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser12:09
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).