Tue, Dec 6, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 27 | 013 | 328 |
| NSH | 215 | 110 | 17 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:08NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:26NSHJames NealAssists: Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:46COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 5:59NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 13:56COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–3
- P3 1:04NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:22COLCody Goloubef: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:38NSHYannick Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:48COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:04NSHMatt Irwin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17COLFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17COLCody Goloubef: Holding2 min
- P3 10:05NSHAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:55COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:27NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Bourque – MacKinnon9:19
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- McLeod – Colborne – Martinsen3:58
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Soderberg – Grigorenko10:44
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Duchene – Rantanen10:30
xG 0.11–0.68 (14%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Gelinas2:14
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie3:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Barrie2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Johansen – Arvidsson9:56
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Fiala11:40
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson10:34
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Gaudreau5:02
xG 0.04–0.17 (21%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:43
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 24–16goals 2–1
- Josi – Irwin16:54
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg8:31
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).