Thu, Dec 8, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 021 | 19 | 236 |
| DAL | 215 | 313 | 09 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:18DALBrett RitchieAssists: Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 16:03NSHViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:27DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 5:47DALAntoine RousselAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 19:16DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 15:09NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Marek Mazanec · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:33NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:33DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40NSHPekka Rinne: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:32DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:06DALTyler Seguin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:13DALPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00NSHAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:26NSHRoman Josi: Charging2 min
- P3 12:00NSHYannick Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00DALCurtis McKenzie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Watson – Gaudreau8:44
xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Johansen – Arvidsson10:37
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 18–8goals 0–2
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Fiala7:43
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson9:05
xG 0.01–0.69 (2%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Weber10:32
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Josi – Irwin14:40
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm15:04
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa9:02
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin10:27
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Shore9:39
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Eaves – Korpikoski – Dickinson8:42
xG 0.15–0.69 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:01
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak13:30
xG 0.66–0.76 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Johns11:56
xG 0.13–0.51 (20%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).