Wed, Dec 14, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 212 | 214 | 635 |
| CGY | 17 | 08 | 27 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06CGYTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:04TBLBrian BoylePPAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 13:42TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:40TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 18:47TBLAndrej SustrGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 0:37TBLAlex KillornSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–1
- P3 3:59CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 4:20CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 19:15TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:49TBLJoel Vermin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 4:37CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:37TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:20TBLTyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:48CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:48CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:18CGYMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 14:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:03TBLBen Bishop: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:04TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P3 2:59TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Boyle – Drouin10:33
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 13–3goals 2–1
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Point6:01
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Conacher4:03
xG 0.19–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Palat5:13
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Koekkoek12:20
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman16:18
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr10:09
xG 0.34–0.34 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Ferland8:07
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Gaudreau – Monahan2:50
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett9:21
xG 0.23–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Monahan5:24
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton13:14
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Wideman – Giordano2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka9:52
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).