Sat, Dec 17, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 06 | 015 | 132 |
| DAL | 07 | 114 | 27 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:44PHITaylor LeierAssists: Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 4:48DALRadek FaksaAssists: Antoine Roussel, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 2:27DALAdam CracknellGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:42DALJordie BennENAssists: Jamie Benn, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:53PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:53DALJason Spezza: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:39PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:02DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Cousins – Leier8:46
xG 0.70–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov9:37
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny15:19
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl16:35
xG 0.80–1.33 (38%)attempts 22–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov18:30
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 13–24goals 1–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere15:53
xG 0.95–1.10 (46%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas16:10
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa7:41
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Seguin2:28
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin7:04
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Shore3:03
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell17:16
xG 1.29–0.86 (60%)attempts 20–21goals 2–0
- Oduya – Benn14:09
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns16:56
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).