Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 27 | 115 | 329 |
| ARI | 05 | 117 | 115 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:48DALJason SpezzaSHAssists: Jordie Benn, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 3:37ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 12:03DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–1
- P3 18:52DALJohn KlingbergENGWGAssists: Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
- P3 19:53ARIRadim VrbataUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 1:09DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15ARIPeter Holland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:27DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:27ARIMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:27ARIMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:27DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:27ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:51ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:02DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin13:45
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Eaves – Korpikoski – Shore10:29
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Faksa11:49
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hudler – Cracknell – Dickinson6:21
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell19:07
xG 0.95–0.58 (62%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Oleksiak13:35
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn13:43
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Rieder – Duclair13:14
xG 2.08–0.09 (96%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Doan – Holland – Perlini10:13
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Dvorak – Crouse2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Duclair – Dvorak – Crouse2:17
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – DeAngelo14:09
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Chychrun12:36
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Stone2:40
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).