Thu, Dec 29, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 110 | 010 | 13 | 335 |
| TBL | 08 | 28 | 011 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:46TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 9:26TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 12:12TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:38TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 3:37TORNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:31TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:25TBLBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P1 11:41TORNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
- P1 16:49TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:58TBLAndrej Sustr: Interference2 min
- P2 2:03TBLAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:28TORNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
- P2 18:31TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:10TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:01TBLValtteri Filppula: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews7:16
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander10:28
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:54
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov5:41
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev13:46
xG 0.89–0.35 (71%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:14
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Carrick11:27
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Peca – Gourde8:47
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin11:52
xG 0.23–0.55 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:32
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr3:20
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Koekkoek6:37
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman8:35
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).