Sun, Jan 1, 2017·Exhibition Stadium, TorontoOutdoor game
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 19 | 317 | 02 | 437 |
| TOR | 010 | 07 | 47 | 14 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:33DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 1:23TORLeo KomarovAssists: Jake Gardiner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 8:23TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 9:34TORConnor BrownAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
- P3 12:05TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Connor Brown, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 13:54DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Anthony Mantha, Xavier Ouellet · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 18:14DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–4
- P3 19:58DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 3:40TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.48 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:49DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:26TORWilliam Nylander: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:51TORConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:15DETNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P2 11:35TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:25TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:25DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Glendening – Larkin7:00
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Nyquist11:08
xG 0.96–0.77 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha10:38
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Ott – Miller – Athanasiou6:40
xG 0.06–0.29 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser4:11
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith11:32
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:03
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews11:33
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 2–2
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:07
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov6:26
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander12:13
xG 0.91–0.98 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick17:02
xG 1.24–0.55 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev16:02
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 2–2
- Polak – Hunwick10:51
xG 0.03–0.94 (3%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).