Sun, Jan 8, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 112 | 18 | 230 |
| PIT | 015 | 214 | 411 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:19TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:44PITConor ShearyAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 11:14PITEric FehrAssists: Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:33PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 3:28PITScott WilsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 5:40TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 7:50PITPhil KesselAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
- P3 17:20PITKris LetangPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:57PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:11TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:09TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:01PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:25PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:45
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bournival – Peca – Erne7:48
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Condra – Killorn – Johnson10:31
xG 0.04–0.79 (5%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Filppula – Paquette – Drouin10:02
xG 0.24–1.00 (19%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWitkowski – Hedman5:21
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Hedman – Sustr7:33
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr3:45
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary12:23
xG 0.74–0.05 (94%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino9:51
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson6:11
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin11:50
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Oleksy6:20
xG 1.02–0.05 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Daley – Letang6:24
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Oleksy – Maatta4:00
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).