Thu, Jan 19, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 15 | 210 | 08 | 323 |
| MIN | 29 | 19 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39MINEric StaalAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:42ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Shane Doan, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:37MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:31MINChris StewartAssists: Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:54ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Shane Doan, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 17:24ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 12:54MINNino NiederreiterPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:18ARIAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:32ARIKevin Connauton: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:47ARILaurent Dauphin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47ARILuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:10MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:47MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:47ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:43MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:43ARIMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:35ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Perlini – Dvorak14:12
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McGinn – Martinook – Jooris8:57
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse8:01
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Burmistrov – Rieder10:26
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Chychrun10:07
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Stone13:58
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson16:06
xG 0.16–0.50 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter10:39
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Pominville – Stewart – Graovac6:18
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
- Pominville – Parise – Haula2:29
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:48
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:24
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba12:59
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Prosser – Folin8:40
xG 0.12–0.13 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).