Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Calgary Flames 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 012 | 06 | 026 |
| TOR | 113 | 211 | 14 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:59TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Nikita Zaitsev · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:00TORNazem KadriAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 16:55TORZach HymanSHAssists: Martin Marincin · Backhand, 0.36 xG0–3
- P3 2:21TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:56CGYTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:26TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:35CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:25TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:17TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:40TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P2 11:40CGYTJ Brodie: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:36TORLeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:36CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:25TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:33CGYAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:44CGYMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:40TORConnor Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:40TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:40CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:44
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan7:46
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett6:09
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Hamilton6:24
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie16:39
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton10:21
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Giordano2:23
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Gauthier – Soshnikov7:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Nylander – Matthews2:15
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:49
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews8:45
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick13:10
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Marincin – Zaitsev12:59
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick13:00
xG 0.36–0.90 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).