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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Calgary Flames 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

TOR winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:25Shot by Versteeg, saved by Andersen
  3. P1 0:55Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Elliott
  4. P1 1:36Shot by Hunwick, saved by Elliott
  5. P1 3:00Shot by Carrick, saved by Elliott
  6. P1 3:57Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott
  7. P1 4:13Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  8. P1 4:16Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  9. P1 4:47Shot by Kulak, saved by Andersen
  10. P1 4:56Brouwer: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Carrick, Marner · CGY Engelland, Versteeg, Brouwer, Kulak, Bennett

  11. P1 5:43Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Elliott5v4
  12. P1 5:54Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Elliott5v4
  13. P1 6:06Shot by Bozak, saved by Elliott5v4
  14. P1 6:19Shot by Marner, saved by Elliott5v4
  15. P1 6:27Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen5v4
  16. P1 10:26Marner: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Komarov, Gardiner, Kadri, Carrick, Nylander · CGY Wideman, Backlund, Brodie, Chiasson, Gaudreau, Tkachuk

  17. P1 13:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Elliott
  18. P1 15:38Shot by Chiasson, saved by Andersen
  19. P1 15:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Elliott
  20. P1 16:17Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  21. P1 16:39Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Elliott
  22. P1 18:06Shot by Chiasson, saved by Andersen
  23. P1 18:40Shot by Polak, saved by Elliott
  24. P1 18:59Goal by Marner (Zaitsev)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Marincin, Marner, Zaitsev · CGY Engelland, Giordano, Frolik, Backlund, Tkachuk

  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 1:35Frolik: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Marincin, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, Zaitsev · CGY Wideman, Frolik, Backlund, Brodie, Tkachuk

  28. P2 2:48Shot by Brodie, saved by Andersen5v4
  29. P2 3:17Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Elliott5v4
  30. P2 3:25Bozak: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Marner, Zaitsev · CGY Wideman, Backlund, Brodie, Chiasson

  31. P2 3:38Shot by Polak, saved by Elliott4v5
  32. P2 4:21Shot by Hunwick, saved by Elliott4v5
  33. P2 4:56Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen4v5
  34. P2 5:55Shot by Marner, saved by Elliott
  35. P2 6:11Shot by Chiasson, saved by Andersen
  36. P2 6:24Shot by Carrick, saved by Elliott
  37. P2 6:53Shot by Kulak, saved by Andersen
  38. P2 7:00Goal by Kadri (Nylander)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Kadri, Carrick, Nylander, Matthews · CGY Engelland, Brouwer, Gaudreau, Kulak, Monahan

  39. P2 7:48Shot by Hamilton, saved by Andersen
  40. P2 8:08Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen
  41. P2 8:47Shot by Kadri, saved by Elliott
  42. P2 11:17Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Marincin, Marner, Zaitsev · CGY Giordano, Frolik, Backlund, Hamilton, Tkachuk

  43. P2 11:40Hunwick: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Polak, Hunwick, Komarov, Hyman · CGY Versteeg, Brouwer, Brodie, Gaudreau, Monahan

  44. P2 11:40Brodie: Embellishment (2 min)3v5

    On ice: TOR Polak, Hunwick, Komarov, Hyman · CGY Versteeg, Brouwer, Brodie, Gaudreau, Monahan

  45. P2 12:36Komarov: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Polak, Komarov, Marincin, Hyman · CGY Giordano, Versteeg, Frolik, Gaudreau, Tkachuk

  46. P2 12:36Giordano: Roughing (2 min)3v5

    On ice: TOR Polak, Komarov, Marincin, Hyman · CGY Giordano, Versteeg, Frolik, Gaudreau, Tkachuk

  47. P2 13:24Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  48. P2 13:45Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen
  49. P2 15:30Shot by Wideman, saved by Andersen
  50. P2 16:20Shot by Versteeg, saved by Andersen
  51. P2 16:25Nylander: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Komarov, Kadri, Marincin, Nylander, Zaitsev · CGY Engelland, Versteeg, Frolik, Backlund, Brodie, Monahan

  52. P2 16:54Shot by Hyman, saved by Elliott4v5
  53. P2 16:55Goal by Hyman (Marincin)4v5+5 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Polak, Komarov, Marincin, Hyman · CGY Versteeg, Brouwer, Brodie, Gaudreau, Monahan

  54. P2 17:22Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen4v5
  55. P2 17:31Shot by Hamilton, saved by Andersen4v5
  56. P2 19:04Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Elliott
  57. P2 19:13Shot by Gardiner, saved by Elliott
  58. P2 0:00Period end
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 0:58Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Andersen
  61. P3 1:10Shot by Monahan, saved by Andersen
  62. P3 1:19Shot by Brodie, saved by Andersen
  63. P3 1:33Chiasson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Komarov, Kadri, Marincin, Nylander, Zaitsev · CGY Wideman, Brodie, Chiasson, Gaudreau, Monahan

  64. P3 2:21Goal by Kadri (Marner, Zaitsev)5v4+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Marner, Zaitsev · CGY Engelland, Stajan, Giordano, Bouma

  65. P3 4:18Shot by Bouma, saved by Andersen
  66. P3 4:44Frolik: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Marincin, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, Zaitsev · CGY Wideman, Frolik, Backlund, Brodie, Tkachuk

  67. P3 6:29Shot by Gardiner, saved by Elliott5v4
  68. P3 10:22Shot by Kadri, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 11:20Shot by Matthews, saved by Elliott
  70. P3 13:11Shot by Frolik, saved by Andersen
  71. P3 18:40Carrick: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Martin, Carrick, Gauthier, Soshnikov · CGY Wideman, Stajan, Brouwer, Brodie, Bennett

  72. P3 18:40Carrick: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Martin, Carrick, Gauthier, Soshnikov · CGY Wideman, Stajan, Brouwer, Brodie, Bennett

  73. P3 18:40Bennett: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Gardiner, Martin, Carrick, Gauthier, Soshnikov · CGY Wideman, Stajan, Brouwer, Brodie, Bennett

  74. P3 19:30Shot by Versteeg, saved by Andersen4v5
  75. P3 0:00Tkachuk: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Polak, Marincin, Brown, Soshnikov · CGY Giordano, Frolik, Backlund, Hamilton, Tkachuk

  76. P3 0:00Period end
  77. P3 0:00Final