Mon, Jan 23, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 2, Arizona Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 111 | 06 | 00 | 225 |
| ARI | 013 | 211 | 016 | 12 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jakub Kindl, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 2:03ARIChristian FischerAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:15ARIRyan WhiteAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 6:34FLAMichael SgarbossaAssists: Colton Sceviour, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 0:48ARITobias RiederGWGAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:56FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:50FLARoberto Luongo: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59ARIAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08ARIPeter Holland: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa10:34
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Jagr – Marchessault – McCann11:16
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – McKegg – Thompson5:10
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:31
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Pysyk11:33
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Kindl – Demers10:39
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad14:33
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Perlini – Dvorak10:53
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder13:28
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- McGinn – Burmistrov – Fischer9:56
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- White – Holland – Crouse8:20
xG 0.13–0.73 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson16:34
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Stone15:05
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
- Murphy – Chychrun13:55
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).