Tue, Jan 24, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 218 | 27 | 12 | 537 |
| NSH | 116 | 114 | 28 | 01 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43NSHFilip ForsbergSHAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 12:12BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Evander Kane, Cody Franson · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 17:28NSHCody McLeodAssists: Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:42BUFJack EichelAssists: Cody Franson, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 5:08NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, James Neal · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 10:17NSHJames NealAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 14:10BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 18:55BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 2:35BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Taylor Fedun, Robin Lehner · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:00NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:00BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:00NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:44NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:31BUFCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:12BUFMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:51BUFJustin Falk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Girgensons8:32
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane5:14
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Ennis – O'Reilly8:18
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Deslauriers3:17
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian19:15
xG 1.82–0.85 (68%)attempts 30–12goals 3–1
- Falk – Fedun7:27
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ristolainen20:09
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 17–25goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith10:13
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:30
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Sissons7:05
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Jarnkrok10:01
xG 0.23–0.96 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Weber – Bitetto10:32
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 2–2
- Ellis – Irwin18:48
xG 0.39–0.80 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm17:47
xG 0.59–1.04 (36%)attempts 21–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).