Tue, Jan 24, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 16 | 011 | 02 | 3 | 333 |
| DAL | 08 | 211 | 014 | 04 | 2 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:35MINJason PominvilleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:38MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:38DALTyler SeguinAssists: Antoine Roussel, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:39DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Patrick Eaves scored
- 2. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 4. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 5. DAL Patrick Sharp stopped
- 6. MIN Jason Zucker stopped
- 7. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 8. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 9. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 10. MIN Chris Stewart scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:59MINMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P1 19:20DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:46MINCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P2 3:36DALEsa Lindell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:17DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:11MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:19MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:46MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:08DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Haula8:45
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter10:36
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund10:40
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac7:09
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba13:05
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:40
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
- Prosser – Reilly9:29
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie7:33
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Seguin9:45
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Sharp – Korpikoski – Shore9:34
xG 0.42–0.52 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin10:34
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:56
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Johns – Nemeth7:05
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Klingberg2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).