Sat, Feb 11, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 19 | 17 | 430 |
| WPG | 08 | 012 | 113 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:02TBLBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Dotchin · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 2:11TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point, Andrej Sustr · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 11:15WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:24TBLVictor HedmanENAssists: Ondrej Palat, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:24TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:53TBLJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00TBLGabriel Dumont: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:01TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:13WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:46
xG 1.56–0.55 (74%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Condra8:44
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Palat – Drouin – Point9:56
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Dumont – Brown – Paquette9:07
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin12:35
xG 1.27–0.46 (73%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Stralman – Hedman2:36
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr11:53
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault7:39
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine4:18
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Copp – Petan2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia9:11
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey5:58
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot5:56
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba4:00
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).