Sun, Feb 19, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 117 | 113 | 07 | 13 | 340 |
| COL | 08 | 06 | 214 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:18TBLBrayden PointAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 10:09TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 2:46COLMikko RantanenAssists: Blake Comeau, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 19:18COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 2:27TBLJonathan DrouinGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:47TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:01COLBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:38TBLJake Dotchin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:31COLNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:46TBLJT Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:57TBLJonathan Drouin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov11:21
xG 1.55–0.08 (95%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Dumont – Brown – Paquette7:20
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Drouin – Point10:20
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Filppula – Boyle – Namestnikov9:04
xG 0.34–0.47 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr13:04
xG 1.29–0.51 (72%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Hedman – Dotchin15:09
xG 0.72–0.53 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Stralman – Garrison14:42
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Duchene – Rantanen8:01
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen4:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Grigorenko6:19
xG 0.16–0.22 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:26
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Tyutin3:53
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Barberio4:39
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Zadorov3:56
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).