Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 213 | 011 | 337 |
| COL | 311 | 18 | 111 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mark Barberio, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:42COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Nieto, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 14:24COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P1 17:11BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–3
- P2 9:55BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Bailey · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 16:07COLBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P2 17:40BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:20COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:44BUFJustin Bailey: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:44COLMark Barberio: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:05COLMikko Rantanen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:49COLJoe Colborne: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:16COLTyson Barrie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:41BUFZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:01BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:38COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Bailey8:43
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Rodrigues4:25
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Girgensons5:47
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Reinhart – Eichel11:36
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Kulikov5:11
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Franson – Bogosian7:04
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Franson4:53
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:42
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Bourque – Grigorenko – Martinsen5:50
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Rantanen10:35
xG 0.66–0.73 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Colborne8:18
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barberio10:16
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Barrie12:59
xG 0.54–0.49 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Johnson – Wiercioch9:00
xG 0.27–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).