Tue, Feb 28, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 116 | 217 | 11 | 541 |
| BUF | 216 | 16 | 16 | 04 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:26BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Jake McCabe, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 18:49NSHMike FisherAssists: Austin Watson, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 2:09NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P2 5:35BUFEvander KaneAssists: Brian Gionta, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 0:56BUFJake McCabeAssists: Kyle Okposo, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 11:16NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 17:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:45NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:01BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:54NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:02BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:30BUFEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 0:39BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:39NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42BUFEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P3 19:57NSHViktor Arvidsson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Jarnkrok12:30
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Fisher – Smith – Fiala8:12
xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:32
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Fiddler – Watson – Zolnierczyk4:24
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:58
xG 0.77–0.48 (61%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:33
xG 0.78–0.65 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 1–2
- Weber – Irwin8:22
xG 0.32–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons4:43
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Foligno3:11
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Foligno – Reinhart – Rodrigues6:29
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Bailey8:46
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Franson14:21
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:04
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 12–24goals 1–2
- Bogosian – Kulikov15:15
xG 0.51–0.75 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).