Tue, Feb 28, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 0, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 012 | 010 | 033 |
| PHI | 314 | 17 | 05 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04PHIWayne SimmondsSHGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:07PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 10:35PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 7:16PHIJordan WealAssists: Radko Gudas, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:30PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:58COLFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:11COLJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:50COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:50PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:37PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:13PHIRadko Gudas: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:52PHIChris VandeVelde: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:50COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:02PHIJordan Weal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Landeskog – MacKinnon8:04
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Rantanen9:05
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Grigorenko – Martinsen8:30
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Colborne10:06
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barberio8:31
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wiercioch5:59
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie7:34
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Weal9:20
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Voracek – Schenn – Cousins10:12
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare10:10
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Weise – Couturier – Raffl5:35
xG 0.19–0.80 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov13:15
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere13:28
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas17:07
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).