Wed, Mar 1, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 218 | 06 | 17 | 00 | 331 |
| TBL | 14 | 08 | 23 | 11 | 416 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:51CARNoah HanifinAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 14:54CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 10:51TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Jake Dotchin, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:18TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 17:23CARJay McClementSHAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:46TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:43CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:11TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:44TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:48CARJaccob Slavin: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:10CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Di Giuseppe – Brown11:45
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Rask – Lindholm – Aho10:52
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Ryan11:40
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- McClement – Nestrasil – Nordstrom8:00
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin10:53
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce10:34
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin6:00
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Erne – Point8:03
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:48
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown4:46
xG 0.11–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin6:23
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Garrison11:25
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Stralman – Hedman4:09
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Garrison – Dotchin2:15
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).