Fri, Mar 3, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 18 | 112 | 229 |
| PIT | 09 | 215 | 311 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:18TBLAdam ErneAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:39PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:49PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:10TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 2:38PITMark StreitGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 16:37PITJustin SchultzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 19:00PITTom KuhnhacklENAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:28PITIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 8:33TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14PITTom Kuhnhackl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:09TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P3 8:16PITTom Kuhnhackl: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:40TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Paquette – Erne8:46
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown7:34
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:50
xG 0.44–1.23 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Killorn – Drouin – Point10:14
xG 0.20–1.25 (14%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin15:19
xG 0.76–0.61 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Stralman – Garrison16:12
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:49
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin9:39
xG 0.91–0.07 (92%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Guentzel7:56
xG 0.94–0.16 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Sheary11:08
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Wilson7:27
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hainsey15:41
xG 1.35–0.54 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:03
xG 0.99–0.48 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel13:42
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).