Tue, Mar 7, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 17 | 19 | 224 |
| TOR | 211 | 110 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07TORAlexey MarchenkoAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:38TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 5:49TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: William Nylander, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 19:22DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:36DETGustav NyquistAssists: Mike Green, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:58DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:01DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:26TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:10TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:55DETNick Jensen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:55DETHenrik Zetterberg: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar13:43
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Mantha4:42
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Glendening3:58
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin4:16
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen13:10
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Green – Russo2:08
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Russo – Ouellet12:06
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:47
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews7:51
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander6:19
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews3:29
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Marchenko14:38
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick12:35
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev17:07
xG 0.54–0.76 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).