Thu, Mar 9, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 112 | 19 | 11 | 331 |
| ARI | 013 | 215 | 013 | 00 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:30ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Tobias Rieder, Jordan Martinook · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:11OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Fredrik Claesson, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:49ARILawson CrouseAssists: Josh Jooris · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 12:47OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- OT 0:40OTTErik KarlssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:54OTTChristopher DiDomenico: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:17OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:06ARIJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:24ARIJamie McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:45OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:23OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:50ARIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Hoffman – Pageau7:48
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Burrows – DiDomenico – Smith2:09
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Dzingel2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Burrows – Brassard – Stone2:38
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:07
xG 1.07–0.60 (64%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Claesson3:22
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Holland – Duclair6:22
xG 0.66–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Rieder – Martinook – Perlini8:56
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Doan – Jooris – Crouse8:41
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak13:03
xG 0.59–0.91 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Chychrun10:23
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Murphy16:11
xG 0.61–0.67 (47%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson16:24
xG 0.69–0.93 (43%)attempts 22–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).