Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 11, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Buffalo Sabres 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ312013011336
BUF06311214531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:09CBJDavid SavardAssists: Sam Gagner, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:00CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Saad, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P1 17:56CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P2 0:18BUFJake McCabeAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 5:43BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
  6. P2 19:57BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P3 17:31BUFEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:56BUFJack EichelENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–5
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 1:21CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 1:16BUFBrian Gionta: Holding2 min
  3. P2 4:10CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 9:21CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 9:21BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:21BUFMarcus Foligno: Charging2 min
  7. P2 10:21CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 10:21BUFJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 0:00CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
  12. P2 0:00BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
  13. P2 0:00CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 0:00CBJScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  15. P2 0:00CBJScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
  16. P2 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 6:23CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min
  18. P3 11:21BUFJosh Gorges: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 15:41CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
44% to win56% to win
← CBJ attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Wennberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJBUF
36Shots on goal31
2.5Expected goals3.7
55Shot attempts62
23Faceoffs won37
3Power plays5
28Penalty minutes34
11Hits22
12Blocked shots14
4Giveaways3
0Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestFoligno – Saad – Wennberg7:34

    xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1

  2. Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner6:26

    xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  3. Korpikoski – Tynan – Karlsson4:02

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  4. Hartnell – Gagner – Bjorkstrand5:00

    xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – Savard10:05

    xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1

  2. Werenski – Nutivaara5:42

    xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0

  3. Jones – Nutivaara5:44

    xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestMoulson – Reinhart – Eichel9:13

    xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0

  2. O'Reilly – Kane – Rodrigues2:39

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Foligno – Girgensons – Bailey4:44

    xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1

  4. Ennis – Deslauriers – Rodrigues2:21

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGorges – Falk2:01

    xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Gorges – Bogosian2:18

    xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Gorges – Franson5:56

    xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.7 xGCBJ 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #34 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.19 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).