Tue, Mar 14, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 011 | 012 | 13 | 237 |
| OTT | 014 | 16 | 09 | 03 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Dotchin, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:35OTTTommy WingelsUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 4:06TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 16:47OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 3:37TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:02TBLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Drouin14:08
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 25–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point15:11
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown9:27
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr10:41
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison15:15
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Hedman – Dotchin15:15
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Dzingel11:08
xG 0.71–0.41 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau3:07
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau9:17
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels10:50
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson2:16
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wideman – Claesson10:46
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).