Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 5, Arizona Coyotes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 110 | 212 | 04 | 1 | 533 |
| ARI | 010 | 29 | 26 | 01 | 0 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 1:53ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:56ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Shane Doan, Josh Jooris · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:45DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Mike Green, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 3:52DETMike GreenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 7:36ARILawson CrouseSHAssists: Alex Goligoski, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 13:55DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 17:30ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ARI Brendan Perlini stopped
- 2. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 3. ARI Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:55ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:14DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:40ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:22ARIMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:22DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:11ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:05DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 19:52ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:57ARITeemu Pulkkinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:43DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P3 14:08ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P3 18:38ARIMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:38DETJustin Abdelkader: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 3:43ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin8:34
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Mantha4:40
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Callahan – Sheahan4:23
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar8:16
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser13:56
xG 0.60–0.10 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Russo – Ouellet11:15
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green11:24
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Jooris – Crouse7:04
xG 0.41–0.01 (96%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- McGinn – Holland – Pulkkinen5:33
xG 0.16–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Rieder – Martinook – Perlini8:45
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak11:11
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Chychrun8:28
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Murphy12:10
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson13:49
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).