Fri, Mar 24, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 011 | 110 | 13 | 232 |
| DET | 04 | 118 | 08 | 00 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:03DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 5:53TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- OT 3:28TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:23TBLOndrej Palat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:24DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:24DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:24TBLAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:24DETAndreas Athanasiou: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:24TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:24TBLJoel Vermin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:33DETAnthony Mantha: Instigator2 min
- P2 2:33DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33DETAnthony Mantha: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 2:33TBLGreg McKegg: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:52TBLAdam Erne: Interference2 min
- P2 12:49TBLJake Dotchin: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:08DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:30TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:39DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding2 min
- P3 17:03DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point13:10
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Dumont – McKegg – Brown3:07
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin11:47
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gourde – Vermin – Erne6:45
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr7:21
xG 0.72–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Coburn – Dotchin2:11
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Hedman – Dotchin9:28
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar11:09
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin5:55
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Glendening – Nosek6:48
xG 0.07–0.23 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Sheahan – Mantha7:49
xG 0.06–0.66 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Russo – Ouellet10:01
xG 0.40–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser14:23
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Green14:51
xG 0.29–0.57 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).