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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 24, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.

DET winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:15Shot by Erne, saved by Mrazek
  3. P1 2:10Shot by Coburn, saved by Mrazek
  4. P1 3:09Shot by Drouin, saved by Mrazek
  5. P1 4:23Palat: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Jensen, Sheahan, DeKeyser, Mantha · TBL Hedman, Palat, Kucherov, Dotchin, Point

  6. P1 5:38Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  7. P1 7:23Shot by Kucherov, saved by Mrazek
  8. P1 8:48Shot by Sheahan, saved by Vasilevskiy
  9. P1 9:00Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Vasilevskiy
  10. P1 9:15Shot by Larkin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 10:10Shot by Stralman, saved by Mrazek
  12. P1 11:58Shot by Coburn, saved by Mrazek
  13. P1 13:35Shot by Palat, saved by Mrazek
  14. P1 17:24Abdelkader: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  15. P1 17:24Abdelkader: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  16. P1 17:24Erne: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  17. P1 17:24Athanasiou: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  18. P1 17:24Gourde: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  19. P1 17:24Vermin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Abdelkader, Russo, Ouellet, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Coburn, Witkowski, Gourde, Vermin, Erne

  20. P1 19:47Shot by Sustr, saved by Mrazek
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:21Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  24. P2 1:29Shot by Ouellet, saved by Vasilevskiy
  25. P2 2:09Shot by Drouin, saved by Mrazek
  26. P2 2:33Mantha: Instigator (2 min)

    On ice: DET Sheahan, Russo, Ouellet, Mantha, Larkin · TBL Stralman, Witkowski, McKegg, Gourde, Vermin

  27. P2 2:33Mantha: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Sheahan, Russo, Ouellet, Mantha, Larkin · TBL Stralman, Witkowski, McKegg, Gourde, Vermin

  28. P2 2:33Mantha: Instigator misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: DET Sheahan, Russo, Ouellet, Mantha, Larkin · TBL Stralman, Witkowski, McKegg, Gourde, Vermin

  29. P2 2:33McKegg: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Sheahan, Russo, Ouellet, Mantha, Larkin · TBL Stralman, Witkowski, McKegg, Gourde, Vermin

  30. P2 3:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by Mrazek4v5
  31. P2 3:11Shot by Point, saved by Mrazek4v5
  32. P2 3:53Shot by Hedman, saved by Mrazek4v5
  33. P2 3:57Shot by Dotchin, saved by Mrazek4v5
  34. P2 4:11Shot by Larkin, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  35. P2 4:44Shot by Nosek, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 5:52Erne: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Sheahan, Russo, Ouellet, Nosek · TBL Coburn, Gourde, Sustr, Vermin, Erne

  37. P2 6:14Shot by Nielsen, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  38. P2 6:10Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  39. P2 7:13Shot by Tatar, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  40. P2 8:03Goal by Zetterberg (Nyquist, Nielsen)+24 pts WP

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Nyquist, Jensen, DeKeyser, Nosek · TBL Stralman, Hedman, Palat, Kucherov, Point

  41. P2 9:16Shot by Drouin, saved by Mrazek
  42. P2 9:32Shot by Sheahan, saved by Vasilevskiy
  43. P2 9:47Shot by Witkowski, saved by Mrazek
  44. P2 10:46Shot by Larkin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 11:00Shot by Gourde, saved by Mrazek
  46. P2 11:54Shot by Green, saved by Vasilevskiy
  47. P2 12:28Shot by Nielsen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 12:49Dotchin: High sticking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Abdelkader, Nyquist, Tatar, Jensen, DeKeyser · TBL Hedman, Palat, Kucherov, Dotchin, Point

  49. P2 12:58Shot by Dumont, saved by Mrazek5v4
  50. P2 14:31Shot by Coburn, saved by Mrazek5v4
  51. P2 14:58Shot by Jensen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  52. P2 15:56Stralman: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Nielsen, Green, Sheahan, Athanasiou · TBL Stralman, Palat, Kucherov, Dotchin, Point

  53. P2 16:12Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  54. P2 16:16Shot by Nyquist, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  55. P2 16:22Shot by Nielsen, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  56. P2 17:00Shot by Nielsen, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  57. P2 17:08Zetterberg: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Nielsen, Green, Nyquist, Sheahan · TBL Hedman, Palat, Dotchin, Point

  58. P2 19:04Shot by Hedman, saved by Mrazek4v5
  59. P2 19:59Shot by Russo, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P2 0:00Period end
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 0:09Shot by Nosek, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 1:18Shot by Stralman, saved by Mrazek
  64. P3 2:03Shot by Hedman, saved by Mrazek
  65. P3 3:39Shot by Stralman, saved by Mrazek
  66. P3 5:14Shot by Hedman, saved by Mrazek
  67. P3 5:37Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Vasilevskiy
  68. P3 5:53Goal by Palat (Kucherov, Coburn)+33 pts WP

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Jensen, Sheahan, DeKeyser, Mantha · TBL Coburn, Palat, Kucherov, Dotchin, Point

  69. P3 5:52Shot by Coburn, saved by Mrazek
  70. P3 6:43Shot by Mantha, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P3 7:18Shot by Larkin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  72. P3 8:28Shot by Palat, saved by Mrazek
  73. P3 8:30Killorn: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Kronwall, Green, Nyquist, Tatar · TBL Stralman, Killorn, Namestnikov, Dotchin, Drouin

  74. P3 8:38Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  75. P3 9:59Shot by Tatar, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  76. P3 10:53Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Mrazek
  77. P3 11:16Shot by Ouellet, saved by Vasilevskiy
  78. P3 13:39Athanasiou: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Kronwall, Green, Abdelkader, Athanasiou, Larkin · TBL Witkowski, Hedman, Dumont, Brown, Sustr

  79. P3 16:23Shot by Dumont, saved by Mrazek
  80. P3 17:03Tatar: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Kronwall, Green, Nyquist, Tatar · TBL Hedman, Dumont, Palat, Sustr, Vermin

  81. P3 18:16Shot by Dotchin, saved by Mrazek4v5
  82. P3 19:51Shot by Sheahan, saved by Vasilevskiy
  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. OT 0:00Period start
  85. OT 0:55Shot by Drouin, saved by Mrazek3v3
  86. OT 2:03Shot by Dotchin, saved by Mrazek3v3
  87. OT 3:28Goal by Kucherov (Point)3v3+54 pts WP

    On ice: DET Zetterberg, Green, Athanasiou · TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point

  88. OT 3:28Period end
  89. OT 3:28Final