Sun, Mar 26, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 111 | 413 | 633 |
| PIT | 112 | 06 | 19 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31PITMatt CullenPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 19:05PHIJordan WealAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:49PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jordan Weal, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 1:11PHIDale WeiseGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 8:41PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Matt Read, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 13:36PITPatric HornqvistAssists: David Warsofsky, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 17:31PHIRadko GudasENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
- P3 18:58PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:47PHIRadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:58PITCameron Gaunce: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:58PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:22PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:30PITCarter Rowney: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier14:38
xG 0.53–0.15 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read12:13
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:57
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny5:40
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov13:52
xG 0.93–0.30 (76%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere15:48
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 3–0
- Manning – Gudas14:14
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Wilson – Sundqvist2:36
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kessel – Bonino3:29
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kuhnhackl – Wilson – Sundqvist2:45
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino4:41
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gaunce10:28
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Cole2:02
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Warsofsky15:43
xG 0.46–0.63 (43%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).