Mon, Mar 27, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 06 | 214 | 226 |
| CGY | 19 | 111 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:33CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 3:06COLSven AndrighettoPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 4:58CGYTroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:06COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:56CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:23COLJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:52CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:16CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:56COLCalvin Pickard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:23COLSven Andrighetto: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colborne won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – Compher2:56
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Colborne2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bourque – Colborne – Compher4:51
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Grigorenko6:02
xG 0.11–0.11 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Barrie4:16
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie10:37
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm8:17
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:38
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer10:13
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:56
xG 0.75–0.63 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Bouma – Chiasson – Bennett9:17
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:13
xG 0.81–0.65 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie16:00
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski17:51
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).